Traders Twiddle Thumbs as Market Idles
August 11, 2009 by Trace
Filed under Trading in the Market
The metals ended the trading day remarkably quiet as many participants continue to point to Wednesday’s Fed rate announcement and the accompanying statement as reason to thumb twiddle and wait.
In the currency markets the Euro roller coastered most of the day but is currently close to the morning levels at $1.4160 up 40/100ths of U.S cent.
With mixed signals from Oil and the Dollar, as well as uncertainty over tomorrow’s Fed announcement our markets might as well have remained closed today. Silver closed 4 cents lower at $14.34. Gold was up $2.00 closing at $946.00. Palladium finished the day unchanged at $275.00. Platinum slipped $8.00 ending at $1238.00. Volume was light.
In the energy markets traders spent much of the day on the sell side after OPEC announced lower oil demand expectations for 2010. Last on Crude $69.53 off $1.07 per barrel. Remember traders will also face the Weekly Oil Inventories tomorrow.
Stocks remain under water with the Dow currently down 82 points at 9255. Tomorrow traders will have the latest U.S Balance of Trade, Weekly Oil Inventories, and the FOMC results to guide their decision making.
In a final note of interest; Chevrolet announced that their new vehicle the Volt will get 230 miles per gallon. I expect you will see this story plastered all over tonight’s news broadcasts.
Trading Quiet in Anticipation of Today’s FOMC Meeting
August 11, 2009 by Trace
Filed under Trading in the Market
As we await the New York open metals are trading flat with a slight positive bias across the Pond. Trader thinking seems to be focused on the two day Federal Open Market Committee Meeting (FOMC) scheduled to begin today. While it is widely expected that the Fed will not change rates or its current posture; traders will be looking at the accompanying statement to see if the Fed’s economic outlook has improved and whether their massive accommodation is at an end.
As for our background barometers; both are trading shade higher. In the currency market, the Euro is at $1.4175 up 55/100ths of U.S cent, and Oil up 20 cents at $70.78.
Metals are reflective (no pun intended) with Silver 1 cent lower at $14.37. Gold is up $1.00 and changing hands at $945.00. Palladium remains unchanged at $275.00. Platinum is $1.00 lower and trading at $1245.00.
Over in the stock market Dow futures are also indicating a pause in advance of the Fed meeting. Early indications are calling for a 6 point lower Dow open.
Today’s economic calendar begins with the 2nd Quarter U.S. Productivity Report where recessionary job cuts and downsizing is being reflected in higher productivity levels for the remaining workers. Look for productivity to be up 5.5% versus the first quarter’s rise of 1.6%. What this really means is that corporate America has become lean and mean.
Today’s other report will come in the form of June Wholesale Inventories where Wall Street expects to see a further reduction in the inventory levels of wholesalers. This implies retailers are buying but wholesalers are not yet willing to keep their shelves stocked at normal levels. If the economy does indeed improve; manufacturers will soon be getting a flurry of orders from reluctant wholesalers.
In global matters violence seems to be on the upswing in both Iraq and Afghanistan. The Taliban seems to be in a panic mode in Pakistan following the death of it’s group leader. In other matters a strong earthquake shook central Japan prompting tsunami warnings in the area.
On Wedneday’s Economic Calendar:
U.S. Trade Balance
U.K. Employment
Market Malaise Over Upcoming Fed Interest Rate Meeting
August 10, 2009 by Trace
Filed under Trading in the Market
The metals closed the trading day on a lower note led by a weaker Euro and general market malaise. Stocks have been under water all day reflecting a renewed worry about banking giant State Street. The company reported that it’s $625 million sub-prime loss reserve may not be enough cover it’s needs. Remember; it doesn’t take much bad news for traders to forget the recent good news and to head for the sidelines again – and vice versa. Last on the Dow 913 down 50 points.
In the currency markets the Euro is presently down 76/100ths of cent versus our Greenback with traders beginning to express concern over this week’s Fed interest rate meeting scheduled for Wednesday.
Crude is taking it’s cue from stocks with Oil currently down 36 cents at $70.57. As for the metals; Silver finished the New York session down 30 cents at $14.38. Gold shed $13.00 to $944.00. Palladium eased $3.00 closing at $275.00. Platinum fell $25.00 to end at $1243.00. Volume was moderate.
Traders report the sudden “kiss and make up” attitude from North Korea may have bled a bit of the geo-political anxiety premium from prices today. Tomorrow the calendar resumes with a fresh look at U.S Productivity and the latest Wholesale Inventories.
Tuesday’s Economic Calendar:
U.S. Wholesale Trade
U.S. FOMC Meeting
and Rate Decision – Volatile Event
German Consumer Prices
Oil Breaks the $70 Psychological Barrier, Dollar Continues to Slide
August 3, 2009 by Trace
Filed under Trading in the Market
The new trading week opens with the metals trading on a positive note. Silver leading the complex. With the U.S economic outlook brightening; commodities across the board are rising in the anticipation of higher demand. Silver is up 28 cents at $14.20. Gold is $2.00 higher changing hands at $956.00. Palladium is $265.00 up $3.00. Platinum is up $6.00 at $1217.00.
Metals are keying off of Oil which has broken through the $70.00 resistance level. Last on Crude $70.01 up another $1.56 per barrel. In the currencies the Dollar continues to slide against the Euro reflecting the rise in Crude prices. Last on the Euro $1.4292 up 32/100ths of a U.S cent.
Over in the stock market the Dow looks about 88 points higher on the growing positive economic sentiment which includes today’s economic data. Traders are anticipating more bad but better economic numbers with June Construction Spending expected to show a decline of .6%; better than the prior month’s decline of .9%. Wall Street also expects to see added improvement in manufacturing when the Institute for Supply Management index of Manufacturing (ISM) reports for the July period. Look for a reading of 46.5 compared to June’s 44.8.
Later today the auto manufacturers will report their July sales. Given the positive response to the Cash for Clunkers stimulus; the Street expects to see a surge in July auto sales. Truck sales are in question. This weeks trading activity will also reflect and lead up this Friday’s U.S Employment data where traders around the world expect to see a sizable improvement in the number of lost jobs. More on that later in the week. On the global front Iran continues to hold mass trials for reformist leaders charging them with attempting to overthrow the current regime.
Euro Trading Higher, Oil Market Quiet
July 31, 2009 by Trace
Filed under Trading in the Market
This morning the Euro is trading higher by another 60/100ths of U.S cent despite a very quiet Oil market. Crude is trading 9 cents lower at $66.85 with traders digesting the recent roller coaster ride which saw Oil drop and then recover and almost $4.00 down draft. Last on the Euro $1.4140.
The metals are slightly higher in overnight trading as Asia and Europe caught up and adjusted their portfolios to reflect yesterday’s New York final $3.59 jump in the price of Oil. Silver gained another 4 cents to $13.58. Gold picked up $1.00 to $936.00. Palladium is $262.00 up $2.00. Platinum is $9.00 higher and changing hands at $1190.00.
In the stock market the Dow ended yesterday with an 83 point gain and appears to be headed for a 45 point higher open today with traders hoping to see improved U.S economic data before the open.
As for today’s data; we start the day with the advance look at our 2nd quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Wall Street expects to see a 1.5% decline in economic growth compared with the first quarter’s decline of 5.5%. Bad but quite a bit better.Next comes the 2nd Quarter reading of Core Personal Consumption/Expenditure Inflation which the Fed watches very closely. The estimate calls for inflation at 2.4% versus the first quarter’s rise of 1.6%.
Later this morning we get our final piece of data with the July Purchasing Managers index of Manufacturing (PMI). The Street expects to see further improvement in manufacturing with a reading of 43 compared to June’s 39.9.
In world matters Iranians refuse to let the bloody aftermath of their elections be ignored as thousands gathered at Tehran’s main cemetery to commemorate the 40 day anniversary of those killed in anti-regime clashes. On the domestic front the health care reform bill debate rages on.
