U.S. Economic Data Disappoints Traders

As the New York market comes to a close we find the metals pretty much reflected a mixed picture in the Oil and Euro markets. The Euro is currently up 18/100ths of U.S cent in the aftermath of a disappointing ADP Payroll Report, and a weaker than expected ISM Services Index. Last on the Euro $1.4428 U.S.

The metals complex mixed and fairly lat. Silver ended with a 10 cent gain at $14.70. Gold eased by $1.00 closing at $964.00. Palladium gave up the morning gains finishing the day unchanged at $277.00. Platinum is trading at $1275.00.

Over in the energies the price of oil had a volatile trading day but is currently flat at $71.31 off 11 cents. Today’s indifference in Crude trading comes on the heels of Oil Inventories which clocked in right on target at up 1.7 million barrels.

Traders are also stepping to the sidelines keeping a wary eye on the Dow which seems to be exhausted. Stock traders expressed their disappointment over today’s U.S economic data with the Dow currently down by 61 points at 9268. The Dow had been down as much as 106 points shortly after today’s housing data hit the tape. Traders will begin making their final portfolio adjustments tomorrow as we get closer to Friday’s Labor Department release of our Non Farm Payrolls report. As for tomorrow the calendar contains one more labor related report before Friday’s main event: Traders will face the Initial Weekly Jobless Claims.

Thursday’s Volatile Market Events:

BANK OF ENGLAND Rate Decision
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK Rate Decision

Personal Income and Spending Mixed

Our regular day to day barometers were idle with the Euro trading virtually unchanged at $1.4410. Crude Oil was also surprisingly quiet given today’s data and tomorrow’s pending Weekly Oil Inventories. Last on Oil $71.23 off 35 cents per barrel.

A spike in Pending Home Sales and another rise in Personal Spending served to increase economic optimism pushing industrial commodities including Silver higher.

Silver was up with a 35 cent gain at $14.60. Gold followed suit rising $9.00 to $965.00. Palladium and Platinum both advanced on yesterday’s positive auto sales comparisons. Palladium closed at $277.00 up $4.00. Platinum gained $22.00 and is now trading at $1258.00.

Pending Home Sales clocked in with a rise of 3.6%; exceeding Wall Street expectations. Our other report; Personal Income and Spending was mixed. Income was down by 1.3%, but Spending grew by a larger than expected .4%. Remember spending is the key to economic recovery.

Even the stock market remains stuck in neutral today despite optimistic economic data. Last on the Dow 9291 up a mere 4 points with 2 hours left in the trading day.

Tomorrow the calendar will keep traders busy with another wave of data….We will get the private ADP Employment Survey, June Factory Orders, the July ISM Services Index, and the Weekly Oil Inventories.
Along with EZ PMI Services, German PMI Services, U.K. PMI Services, and U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Cost Index.

Oil’s Rise Pushes Dollar Lower Against the Euro

Better than expected U.S economic data, a surge in the Dow, and higher Oil helped to send the metals higher during today’s New York trading session.

Silver ended with a 33 cent gain at $14.25. Gold had a mid session surge but ended with a minimal gain of $2.00 at $956.00. Palladium and Platinum picked up as the automakers are reporting firm sales for the month of July. So far both Ford and GM have reported gains in the number of cars sold. Keep in mind there is the “Cash for Clunkers” effect. Still, Palladium gained $11.00 to $273.00. Platinum went up $15.00 ending the day at $1225.00.

Currency traders ignored today’s U.S economic data choosing instead to follow Oil. Today’s $2.37 rise in the price of Oil served to push the Dollar lower against the Euro. Last on the Euro $1.4405; up 1.49 U.S cents.

Today’s data helped to push the Dow up another 102 points at 9274. As for the data, Construction Spending actually grew by .3% compared to expectations of a .5% decline. Furthermore the ISM Manufacturing index clocked in at 48.9; well above the expectations of 46.5. As for tomorrow the calendar continues with a fresh look at Personal Income and Spending along with the latest Pending Home Sales for June.

Oil Breaks the $70 Psychological Barrier, Dollar Continues to Slide

The new trading week opens with the metals trading on a positive note. Silver leading the complex. With the U.S economic outlook brightening; commodities across the board are rising in the anticipation of higher demand. Silver is up 28 cents at $14.20. Gold is $2.00 higher changing hands at $956.00. Palladium is $265.00 up $3.00. Platinum is up $6.00 at $1217.00.

Metals are keying off of Oil which has broken through the $70.00 resistance level. Last on Crude $70.01 up another $1.56 per barrel. In the currencies the Dollar continues to slide against the Euro reflecting the rise in Crude prices. Last on the Euro $1.4292 up 32/100ths of a U.S cent.

Over in the stock market the Dow looks about 88 points higher on the growing positive economic sentiment which includes today’s economic data. Traders are anticipating more bad but better economic numbers with June Construction Spending expected to show a decline of .6%; better than the prior month’s decline of .9%. Wall Street also expects to see added improvement in manufacturing when the Institute for Supply Management index of Manufacturing (ISM) reports for the July period. Look for a reading of 46.5 compared to June’s 44.8.

Later today the auto manufacturers will report their July sales. Given the positive response to the Cash for Clunkers stimulus; the Street expects to see a surge in July auto sales. Truck sales are in question. This weeks trading activity will also reflect and lead up this Friday’s U.S Employment data where traders around the world expect to see a sizable improvement in the number of lost jobs. More on that later in the week. On the global front Iran continues to hold mass trials for reformist leaders charging them with attempting to overthrow the current regime.

Euro Trading Higher, Oil Market Quiet

This morning the Euro is trading higher by another 60/100ths of U.S cent despite a very quiet Oil market. Crude is trading 9 cents lower at $66.85 with traders digesting the recent roller coaster ride which saw Oil drop and then recover and almost $4.00 down draft. Last on the Euro $1.4140.

The metals are slightly higher in overnight trading as Asia and Europe caught up and adjusted their portfolios to reflect yesterday’s New York final $3.59 jump in the price of Oil. Silver gained another 4 cents to $13.58. Gold picked up $1.00 to $936.00. Palladium is $262.00 up $2.00. Platinum is $9.00 higher and changing hands at $1190.00.

In the stock market the Dow ended yesterday with an 83 point gain and appears to be headed for a 45 point higher open today with traders hoping to see improved U.S economic data before the open.

As for today’s data; we start the day with the advance look at our 2nd quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Wall Street expects to see a 1.5% decline in economic growth compared with the first quarter’s decline of 5.5%. Bad but quite a bit better.Next comes the 2nd Quarter reading of Core Personal Consumption/Expenditure Inflation which the Fed watches very closely. The estimate calls for inflation at 2.4% versus the first quarter’s rise of 1.6%.

Later this morning we get our final piece of data with the July Purchasing Managers index of Manufacturing (PMI). The Street expects to see further improvement in manufacturing with a reading of 43 compared to June’s 39.9.

In world matters Iranians refuse to let the bloody aftermath of their elections be ignored as thousands gathered at Tehran’s main cemetery to commemorate the 40 day anniversary of those killed in anti-regime clashes. On the domestic front the health care reform bill debate rages on.

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