Markets Lifeless as Traders Await Today’s GDP Reading

Markets are trading or expected to open flat this morning with traders expressing nervousness over the pending 2nd Quarter release of our Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Despite all the optimism having been thrown about in the wake of recent economic data; traders will face the stark reality of what it all means when the GDP gets released this morning. GDP is the sum total of all goods and services produced in our country. In other words it’s the bottom line result of all our economic data.

The current estimate calls for a preliminary 2nd Quarter reading of -1.5%. This is an unfavorable comparison to the first quarter where our economic contraction was only 1%. If correct it will have traders scratching their heads.

Today’s other report of significance will be this week’s Initial Jobless Claims. Wall Street expects to see a number of 565,000 versus last week’s 576,000. Core PCE Inflation is expected to have remained unchanged at 2%.

As for the markets; Silver remains unchanged at $14.25. Gold is $2.00 higher at $947.00. Palladium is $283.00 up $1.00. Platinum is flat at $1235.00.

Our day to day barometers are mixed and quiet. Crude is 52 cents per barrel lower at 70.92. The Euro is 28/100ths of U.S. cent higher at $1.4258. Over in the equities market the Dow finished the Wednesday trading day with a 4 point gain. This morning the index is being called to open 2 points lower.

On the geo-political front it appears the predicted public uproar surrounding the planned visit to New Jersey by Libya’s Moammar Gadhafi has already started according to a front page article in today’s Wall Street Journal. It’s sort of reminiscent of Iran’s Ahmadinejad visiting New York City.

Efficient Market Hypothesis: True “Villain” of the Financial Crisis?

Editor’s Note: The following article discusses Robert Prechter’s view of the Efficient Market Hypothesis. For more information, download this free 10-page issue of Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist.

When a maverick idea becomes vindicated, there’s a good story to tell. It usually involves a person (or small group of people) who courageously challenge the orthodoxy of the day — and, over time, the unorthodox yet better idea prevails.

A “good story” of this sort has surfaced during the current financial crisis. A chapter of the story appeared in a recent New York Times article, “Poking Holes in a Theory on Markets.” The theory in question is the efficient market hypothesis (EMH), which the article suggested is so hazardous that it “is more or less responsible for the financial crisis.” This quote tells you most of what you need to know:

“In the last decade, the efficient market hypothesis, which had been near dogma since the early 1970s, has taken some serious body blows. First came the rise of the behavioral economists, like Richard H. Thaler at the University of Chicago and Robert J. Shiller at Yale, who convincingly showed that mass psychology, herd behavior and the like can have an enormous effect on stock prices — meaning that perhaps the market isn’t quite so efficient after all. Then came a bit more tangible proof: the dot-com bubble, quickly followed by the housing bubble. Quod erat demonstrandum.”

In case your Latin is rusty, Quod erat demonstrandum means “which was to be demonstrated.” Its abbreviation (QED) appears at the conclusion of a mathematical proof. In this case, the massive financial bubbles of recent years are the proof that refutes the efficient market hypothesis, which argues that markets move in a “random walk” and are not patterned.

Similar articles in the financial press have reported the demise of the EMH. Just this week an Economist magazine blog included this bold declaration:

“No one has yet produced a version of the EMH which can be tested and fits the evidence. Thus, the EMH must logically be discarded, as a valid hypothesis must be testable.”

QED, indeed — I agreed years ago that the random walk was implausible. But I didn’t come to this view because of behavioral economists, although their work over the past decade has certainly been valuable. Instead, I was persuaded by the work of someone who first challenged the financial orthodoxy more than three decades ago, specifically April 1977. As a young technical analyst at Merrill Lynch in New York, his research circulated among several of Merrill’s clients. His name for these studies was the Elliott Wave Theorist: the April ‘77 study was a detailed analysis of the 1975-76 stock market, which offered this comment on the random walk model:

“If market moves are arbitrary (as the random walk proponents suggest), then internal components would rarely ‘make sense’ mathematically, and then only by statistically insignificant fluke occurrences. However, there seems to be enough evidence that mass psychology, as recorded in the Dow Jones Industrials, form patterns that are uncannily interrelated….At least this much can be fairly reliably stated as a result of this work: This idea that the market is a ‘random walk’ is probably false.”

Robert Prechter left Merrill soon after; he has published the Elliott Wave Theorist in every month since. Every issue has, in one way or another, “convincingly showed that mass psychology, herd behavior and the like can have an enormous effect on stock prices.”

So while there may be a good story to tell about behavioral economists, I trust you see why I believe there is a vastly better one to tell.

The “enormous effect” of “mass psychology” and “herd behavior” is exactly what explains the financial downturn that began in late 2007. Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist anticipated the crisis and warned subscribers beforehand. Likewise, he alerted them to the bear market rally that began last March.

For more information from Robert Prechter, download a FREE 10-page issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist. It challenges current recovery hype with hard facts, independent analysis, and insightful charts. You’ll find out why the worst is NOT over and what you can do to safeguard your financial future.

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Robert Folsom is a financial writer and editor for Elliott Wave International. He has covered politics, popular culture, economics and the financial markets for two decades, via print, radio and the Internet. Robert earned his degree in political science from Columbia University in 1985.

Learn to Trade Forex by Game Playing

Forex is a complicated system which still often confounds people with years of trading experience. Knowing how a situation usually resolves itself does not mean that you will be able to correctly predict how it will resolve itself every time. The market data is an excellent way of judging what the situation is at any given time. It is also as good a way as you will find of predicting future market behavior. Nonetheless, it is not a guaranteed predictor and consequently even the most experienced traders sometimes make a mess of things.

The less experience you have – in anything – the more likely you are to have the wrong reaction to a given situation. If this is in a golf match, then all that rests on your mistake is a little personal pride. On the Forex market, it can end up costing you real money. It is therefore massively important that you have as much knowledge to back up your every decision as you possibly can. One way of accruing knowledge without making costly mistakes and potentially bankrupting yourself is to start by playing online Forex games. These are a kind of simulator which closely reflects the real-life market and tells you how good your instincts are – without ruining you if you make a mistake.

There are Forex games available on the Internet which run entirely free of charge. There is obviously some variation in quality, and you should ensure that you check out more than a couple before committing to one. The more experience you gather before playing live, the better your chances of making real money in the future.

Forex Market Data

Being able to read the comprehensive and constantly-updating information that flashes across the screen in any investment banking firm or hedge fund is tantamount to forgetting the English language and learning to speak it all over again, from scratch. There is so much complicated information on the screen at any given time that it can be rather daunting for a novice or even for someone who feels that they know quite a lot about private finance.

Learning to decipher the data in the forms in which it comes to you can be a test for anyone. It is important to find, first of all, something that makes sense to you in its present form. From that it is often possible to extrapolate a little bit more information. Before really throwing yourself into Forex trading though, it is hugely important to read everything you can find on all the different ways of collating data, how to arrange the information and what parts of that information to set the most store by.

Some charts will tell you how the market has been changing over the last day, and sometimes it will also include information on how the price has trended over a period of five, ten, even twenty days. There is data that allows you to predict when a market will stabilise or fall, or even rise, and how to arrange your investments in reference to that information. Knowing how to read all this information won’t make you a billionaire, but it will help you to get a head start.

Analyzing the Market to Your Advantage

It has been said by many experienced traders that Forex is a more volatile market than any of the available options. The theory goes that it is difficult enough to judge a single company’s value at a given time and in the future, just imagine how hard it is to do the same thing with a whole country.

This philosophy takes the point of view that analyzing the Forex market relies on careful reading over a period of time. Some knowledge of world affairs is also advantageous, as it allows you to be aware in advance of the timing of important announcements which can cause market volatility.

Others will treat the Forex market exactly like they would treat any other stock market, and take a more technical approach to analyzing their next step. This is not as simple a process in Forex as it is in the stock market, as the Forex is a 24-hour market, and the data-gathering systems require some modification to work effectively on Forex. Nonetheless, where these methods of technical analysis have been correctly applied, they have proved to be an effective way of making a profit on the Forex market just as their original forms proved on other markets.

While the first method is more of a global, evidence-based approach and the second tends towards techniques and patterns, both have been proven to be successful if correctly applied. It is highly advisable, though, to recognise which one to apply at a given time, as confusion can easily arise around what exactly the data tells you. Pick the method that you require and use the other to supplement it. That is the only way you can confidently operate in the long term.

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